Showing posts with label taxi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label taxi. Show all posts

Friday, November 12, 2010

Connecting spending to tax cuts and GDP growth

These numbers are always being thrown around, but where are the primary source reference?

70% of US GDP is driven by consumer spending. (source? probably BEA)

Average consumer unit:
Age: 49
Number of persons in consumer unit: 2.5
Income before taxes: $62,857
(source: US Dept Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010)

Average annual expenditure: $49,067
(source: US Dept Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010)

So...

If you believe the hypothesis that tax cuts effect consumer spending, which subsequently increases GDP growth, then for tax cuts to be most effective, they should targeted the average consumer unit.

Since the average consumer makes considerably less than $200,000 annually, any tax cuts should target the tax brackets around $65,000 annual income.

Some assumptions:
1. The average consumer unit represents most of the 70% of consumer spending of the GDP.
2. Consumers will be more likely to boost spending if the change in tax liabilities is permanent.
3. Consumers will wait to increase spending until a tax change affects their take-home pay.
(source:
"The effect of tax changes on consumer spending"Steindel, C. (2001) Current Issues in Economics and Finance)

Monday, November 08, 2010

Small business and tax bracket

let's take a look.

"Of the 15.5 million individuals whose primary ocupation was self-employment (incorporated and unincorporated), the median personal marginal federal tax rate was 10 percent in 2008. Only 4.1 percent of the self-employed were in the marginal tax bracket of 33 percent or more."

Source: US Dept of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March Supplement (special tabulation).

So I ask you, do rich people (>$200,000/yr) own small business?

Fact: Small business generate the most new jobs.
Fact: Most small business owners are not "rich".

Conclusion:
If the tax cuts for people earning more than $250,000/yr are allowed to expire, there will be minimal impact on small business, because a majority of the owners of those businesses will not be effected by the tax "increase".

Is this correct? Am I missing something?

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